If you have been keeping an eye on business news this year, odds are you’ve seen the headline “The S&P 500 reaches another record high.” In fact, as of early September, the S&P 500 index has reached a record high 20 times this year. When considering all the events that occurred in 2025, from trade policy to geopolitical events, from the MAG 7 sell-off and rebound to stubbornly high interest rates, corporate America has been quite resilient in the face of a volatile landscape, and investors have benefited.
While the market is currently on pace to have another above-average return for the year, it’s also on track for an above-average year for setting an All-Time High.
Number of all-time highs for the S&P 500 each year
Exhibit A. Frequency of S&P 500: All-Time Highs Occurrences
(S&P 500 historical average for closing at a record high = 18 times per year)
Source: Apolloacademy
With the S&P presently flirting at an All-Time High and a possible third year in a row of double-digit returns, we’ve been asked the question from clients with fresh cash to invest: “Is now the right time to begin buying stocks?” Our response? As any good advisor would say, “It depends on the purpose of this new capital, but one thing you should not do is let the market’s achievement of an “All-Time High” or the concern of a “market sell-off” deter you from investing.
When providing this response to clients, we’ve found the following data points to best illustrate this perspective:
Investing at All-Time Highs can deliver superior returns
On average, investing at an “All-Time High” has actually outperformed investing at “Non All-Time Highs” for holding periods of 6 months and greater.
Average cumulative S&P 500 total returns
Exhibit B. Historical Returns: Investing During All-Time Highs vs. Non All-Time Highs
Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Market corrections after highs are rare
The odds of a material correction (a decline of >10% from the high) are low, as the market has experienced this level of decline in only 9% of time periods one year out and falls significantly when observing the three-year (2%) and five-year time periods (0%).
Exhibit C. Frequency of Market Corrections Following All-Time Highs
Source: Bloomberg, RBC GAM. Data as of January 1, 1950 to March 2024, in U.S. dollars.
Long-term Investors are often rewarded
Over the last ~80 years, if you had invested in the S&P 500 at the start of any calendar year and held that investment for 10 years, you would have experienced a positive rate of return 97% of the time, and on average would have experienced an 11.32% annualized return.
For those with significant risk aversion
For clients who remain risk-averse despite these illustrations, we often discuss Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) vs. Lump-Sum (LS) Investment. The data suggest that a DCA approach can mitigate the risk of negative outcomes over shorter time periods (see Exhibit D), when the range of potential returns and the degree of portfolio drawdowns are less extreme. However, DCA also significantly limits upside return potential if you’re investing over longer time periods (see Exhibit E).
Standard deviation for 24-month DCA vs. Lump Sum Investment U.S. Stocks
Exhibit D. 24-month range of return outcomes for LS vs. DCA
Source: Of Dollars And Data
Exhibit E. Ten-Year Compounded Cumulative Return Outcomes
Source: Northwestern Mutual
The Bigger Picture: Timing the market is difficult
In summary, trying to time a market downturn is incredibly difficult; you not only need to know when to sell, but when to buy back in. History has shown that the average equity fund investor often buys in times of market euphoria and sells during times of market panic.
Establishing your investment time horizon for specific buckets of investment capital will allow you to benefit from “time in the market” and not succumb to the temptation of “timing the market”, ultimately helping you avoid costly mistakes and securing positive outcomes with confidence, no matter the market environment or price level.
Disclaimer
This information is for general and educational purposes only. You should not assume that any discussion or information contained herein serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Simon Quick Advisors & Co., LLC (“Simon Quick”) nor should this be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase an interest in a security or separate accounts of any type. Asset Allocation and diversifying asset classes may be used in an effort to manage risk and enhance returns. It does not, however, guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Investing in Liquid and Illiquid Alternative Investments may not be suitable for all investors and involves a high degree of risk. Many Alternative Investments are highly illiquid, meaning that you may not be able to sell your investment when you wish. Risk of Alternative Investments can vary based on the underlying strategies used.
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Simon Quick), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. Simon Quick is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. If you are a Simon Quick client, please remember to contact Simon Quick, in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services.
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